HKBU-led research mapping out how new energy vehicles alter urban air pollution in China published in Nature Health

Vehicle emissions have long been one of the major sources of urban air pollution. Over the past decade, China has rapidly become the world’s largest market for new energy vehicles (NEVs), including electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. While NEVs are widely expected to improve air quality and public health, most estimates have relied mainly on emission inventories and atmospheric models, and direct observational evidence from the real world has remained limited.

In a newly published study in the journal Nature Health titled "Reduced urban air pollution and mortality from the transition to new energy vehicles in China",  an HKBU research team has provided missing real-world confirmation. Led by Professor Gao Meng from the Academy of Geography, Sociology and International Studies, the study combines satellite observations, in-situ measurements, vehicle ownership records, and explainable machine learning methods to investigate how NEVs have affected urban air pollution across China from 2013 to 2023. It analyses four major pollutants, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, CO, and NO₂, closely related to traffic emissions, and evaluates NEVs’ public health benefits.

The results show that NEVs have already brought substantial environmental and health gains: by 2023, NEV adoption was associated with a 23.80% reduction in PM_2.5 (8.97 μg/m³), a 15.06% reduction in PM₁₀ (9.57 μg/m³), and a 30.67% reduction in CO (0.26 mg/m³). These improvements indicate the prevention of approximately 262,000 PM_2.5-related deaths and more than 75,000 CO-related deaths. However, the decrease in NO₂ concentrations was more limited, with only a 7.92% reduction (1.81 μg/m³). Analysis suggests that this is partly due to the slow electrification of heavy-duty diesel vehicles, which remain major contributors to NO_x emissions, and also the complex atmospheric photochemical processes governing NO₂ formation.

Another important finding is that the benefits of NEVs are not evenly distributed. The largest improvements in air quality and health were concentrated in economically developed cities, while less-developed regions experienced smaller gains. This highlights the need to accelerate heavy-duty vehicle electrification and to expand NEV deployment more evenly across regions, so that cleaner transportation can provide a larger population with healthier air.
 

Full research : Reduced urban air pollution and mortality from the transition to new energy vehicles in China | Nature Health

More about Professor Gao's research profile: Meng GAO - Hong Kong Baptist University